Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL)
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and markets pain management medications. The company is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.42% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.61 (5.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.77% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COLL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 18, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 1.9510
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1196
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1196) – 1
= 61.36%
April 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y605)
= Exp(a + b × X605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9510 + 0.0009 × 880 + 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(3.0258)
= $20.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y605)
= Exp(a + b × X605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9510 + 0.0009 × 880 – 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(2.5473)
= $12.77
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9510 + 0.0009 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(3.9050)
= $49.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9510 + 0.0009 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(3.4266)
= $30.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.42% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.61 (5.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 14.8094
b = -0.0062
s = 0.0316
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0062) – 1
= -89.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.48%
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8094 + -0.0062 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.7756)
= $43.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8094 + -0.0062 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.6491)
= $38.44
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8094 + -0.0062 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.4696)
= $32.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8094 + -0.0062 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.3431)
= $28.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.77% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.