Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) is an American multinational pharmaceutical company, headquartered in New York City. Bristol Myers Squibb manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and biologics in several therapeutic areas, including cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hepatitis, rheumatoid arthritis and psychiatric disorders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.06% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $57.88 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.24 (24.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 123.93% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 30, 2022
End date: August 12, 2024
a = 4.8908
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0675
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -21.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0675) – 1
= 31.00%
March 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 860 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8908 + -0.0006 × 860 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.4685)
= $87.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 860 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8908 + -0.0006 × 860 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.1985)
= $66.58
August 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8908 + -0.0006 × 1,726 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.9073)
= $49.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8908 + -0.0006 × 1,726 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.6373)
= $37.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.06% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $57.88 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.24 (24.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.0176
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 123.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0355) – 1
= 15.27%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0176 + 0.0022 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(3.7219)
= $41.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0176 + 0.0022 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(3.5798)
= $35.87
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0176 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.1216)
= $61.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0176 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(3.9796)
= $53.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 123.93% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.