Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) is an American multinational pharmaceutical company, headquartered in New York City. Bristol Myers Squibb manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and biologics in several therapeutic areas, including cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hepatitis, rheumatoid arthritis and psychiatric disorders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.58% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $60.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.41% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 1.6019
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0525
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0525) – 1
= 23.37%
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,026)
= Exp(a + b × X1,026 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6019 + 0.0014 × 1,490 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.7902)
= $44.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,026)
= Exp(a + b × X1,026 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6019 + 0.0014 × 1,490 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.5802)
= $35.88
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6019 + 0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(4.2585)
= $70.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6019 + 0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(4.0485)
= $57.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.58% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $60.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 31, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 3.3259
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0291
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.35%
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3259 + 0.0004 × 1,674 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(4.0809)
= $59.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3259 + 0.0004 × 1,674 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.9644)
= $52.69
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3259 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(4.1438)
= $63.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3259 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(4.0273)
= $56.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.41% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.