Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC)
Phibro Animal Health Corporation develops, manufactures and supplies a range of mineral nutrition and animal health products for livestock primarily in the United States. The company is headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 154.85% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $23.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.41% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PAHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -1.4650
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0695
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 154.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0695) – 1
= 32.04%
November 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4650 + 0.0026 × 1,449 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(2.3878)
= $10.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4650 + 0.0026 × 1,449 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(2.1099)
= $8.25
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4650 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.3541)
= $28.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4650 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.0761)
= $21.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 154.85% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $23.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -0.4946
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0578
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 108.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0578) – 1
= 26.01%
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0020 × 1,621 + 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(2.8822)
= $17.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0020 × 1,621 – 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(2.6510)
= $14.17
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(3.2946)
= $26.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(3.0635)
= $21.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.41% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.