Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, with offices in 18 countries. Its products are sold in approximately 125 countries.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.36% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $729.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $175.46 (19.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.65% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $48.25 (6.20%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2022
End date: September 26, 2024
a = 4.0147
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0785
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0785) – 1
= 36.91%
August 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y680)
= Exp(a + b × X680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0147 + 0.0016 × 988 + 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(5.7682)
= $319.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y680)
= Exp(a + b × X680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0147 + 0.0016 × 988 – 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(5.4541)
= $233.71
September 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0147 + 0.0016 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(7.0350)
= $1,135.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0147 + 0.0016 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(6.7209)
= $829.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.36% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $729.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $175.46 (19.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2024
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 9.5037
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0327
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.96%
August 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5037 + -0.0015 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.9351)
= $1,027.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5037 + -0.0015 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.8045)
= $901.87
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5037 + -0.0015 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.7950)
= $893.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5037 + -0.0015 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.6643)
= $783.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.65% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $48.25 (6.20%).