Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, with offices in 18 countries. Its products are sold in approximately 125 countries.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.88% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $825.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.73% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 7.2742
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0659
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0659) – 1
= 30.17%
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2742 + -0.0003 × 1,524 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(6.9251)
= $1,017.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2742 + -0.0003 × 1,524 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(6.6614)
= $781.63
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2742 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(6.8301)
= $925.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2742 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(6.5664)
= $710.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.88% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $825.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 4.9196
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.16%
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9196 + 0.0010 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(6.7211)
= $829.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9196 + 0.0010 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(6.5374)
= $690.50
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9196 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(6.8598)
= $953.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9196 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(6.6762)
= $793.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.73% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.