Alkermes Plc (ALKS)
Alkermes plc, a biopharmaceutical company, researches, develops and markets pharmaceutical products to address the unmet medical needs of patients in various therapeutic areas in the United States, Ireland and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.82% per annum.
- ALKS price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $27.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.80% per annum.
- ALKS price at the close of April 25, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.93 (12.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALKS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2021
End date: December 3, 2024
a = 3.2663
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0974
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.63%
June 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2663 + 0.0000 × 407 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.4702)
= $32.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2663 + 0.0000 × 407 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.0806)
= $21.77
December 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2663 + 0.0000 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.4985)
= $33.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2663 + 0.0000 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.1090)
= $22.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.82% per annum.
- ALKS price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $27.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 1.5947
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0442
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0442) – 1
= 19.36%
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5947 + 0.0011 × 1,445 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.2298)
= $25.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5947 + 0.0011 × 1,445 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.0528)
= $21.17
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5947 + 0.0011 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.6108)
= $37.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5947 + 0.0011 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.4338)
= $30.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.80% per annum.
- ALKS price at the close of April 25, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.93 (12.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.