Organon & Co (OGN)
Organon & Co. is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey. Organon specializes in the following core therapeutic fields: reproductive medicine, contraception, psychiatry, Hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and anesthesia. The company sells to international markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.77% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $12.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.21% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.26 (2.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 4.6436
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0747
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0747) – 1
= 34.83%
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,096 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(3.2203)
= $25.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,096 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(2.9214)
= $18.57
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,441 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(2.7252)
= $15.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,441 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(2.4264)
= $11.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.77% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $12.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 18.2342
b = -0.0110
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0110) – 1
= -98.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.91%
March 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,403 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.8915)
= $18.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,403 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.6691)
= $14.43
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,441 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.4730)
= $11.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,441 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.2506)
= $9.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.21% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.26 (2.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.