Organon & Co (OGN)
Organon & Co. is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey. Organon specializes in the following core therapeutic fields: reproductive medicine, contraception, psychiatry, Hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and anesthesia. The company sells to international markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 81.27% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.66% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: October 25, 2024
a = 8.5949
b = -0.0046
s = 0.0185
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0046) – 1
= -81.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0185) – 1
= 7.70%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5949 + -0.0046 × 1,197 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(3.1382)
= $23.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5949 + -0.0046 × 1,197 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(3.0640)
= $21.41
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5949 + -0.0046 × 1,260 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(2.8491)
= $17.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5949 + -0.0046 × 1,260 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(2.7749)
= $16.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 81.27% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 14.6447
b = -0.0093
s = 0.0279
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0093) – 1
= -96.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.83%
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6447 + -0.0093 × 1,264 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(2.9294)
= $18.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6447 + -0.0093 × 1,264 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(2.8176)
= $16.74
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6447 + -0.0093 × 1,285 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(2.7339)
= $15.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6447 + -0.0093 × 1,285 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(2.6221)
= $13.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.66% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.