Stock Price Trends

Organon & Co (OGN)

Organon & Co. is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey. Organon specializes in the following core therapeutic fields: reproductive medicine, contraception, psychiatry, Hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and anesthesia. The company sells to international markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.77% per annum.
  • OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $12.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.21% per annum.
  • OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.26 (2.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 14, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 4.6436

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0747

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0747) – 1
= 34.83%

May 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,096 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(3.2203)
= $25.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,096 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(2.9214)
= $18.57

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,441 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(2.7252)
= $15.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6436 + -0.0014 × 1,441 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(2.4264)
= $11.32

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.77% per annum.
  • OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $12.12 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 17, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 18.2342

b = -0.0110

s = 0.0556

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0110) – 1
= -98.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.91%

March 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,403 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.8915)
= $18.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,403 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.6691)
= $14.43

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,441 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.4730)
= $11.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2342 + -0.0110 × 1,441 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.2506)
= $9.49

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.21% per annum.
  • OGN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.26 (2.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.