Organon & Co (OGN)
Organon & Co. is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey. Organon specializes in the following core therapeutic fields: reproductive medicine, contraception, psychiatry, Hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and anesthesia. The company sells to international markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.43% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $14.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.73% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 4.5677
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0635
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0635) – 1
= 28.93%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5677 + -0.0014 × 1,095 + 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(3.1907)
= $24.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5677 + -0.0014 × 1,095 – 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(2.9367)
= $18.85
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5677 + -0.0014 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(2.7828)
= $16.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5677 + -0.0014 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(2.5287)
= $12.54
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.43% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $14.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 2.6519
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.04%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6519 + 0.0000 × 1,272 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(2.7773)
= $16.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6519 + 0.0000 × 1,272 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(2.6459)
= $14.10
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6519 + 0.0000 × 1,417 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(2.7841)
= $16.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6519 + 0.0000 × 1,417 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(2.6527)
= $14.19
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.73% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.