Amphastar P (AMPH)
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal products in the United States, China, and France. The company is headquartered in Rancho Cucamonga, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.58% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $43.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.98% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.76 (1.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 15, 2023
End date: August 16, 2024
a = 5.2257
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1033
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1033) – 1
= 51.16%
June 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2257 + -0.0009 × 1,303 + 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(4.2805)
= $72.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2257 + -0.0009 × 1,303 – 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(3.8674)
= $47.82
August 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2257 + -0.0009 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(3.9022)
= $49.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2257 + -0.0009 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(3.4891)
= $32.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.58% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $43.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2024
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 1.9773
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.89%
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9773 + 0.0011 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.7724)
= $43.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9773 + 0.0011 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.5501)
= $34.82
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9773 + 0.0011 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.0077)
= $55.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9773 + 0.0011 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.7854)
= $44.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.98% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.76 (1.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.