ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD)
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of small molecule drugs that address unmet medical needs in central nervous system disorders. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.44% per annum.
- ACAD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $16.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.34 (2.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.68% per annum.
- ACAD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACAD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: March 13, 2024
a = 2.8549
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1914
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1914) – 1
= 115.05%
April 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 367 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8549 + 0.0002 × 367 + 2 × 0.1914)
= Exp(3.3099)
= $27.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 367 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8549 + 0.0002 × 367 – 2 × 0.1914)
= Exp(2.5442)
= $12.73
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8549 + 0.0002 × 1,440 + 2 × 0.1914)
= Exp(3.5209)
= $33.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8549 + 0.0002 × 1,440 – 2 × 0.1914)
= Exp(2.7552)
= $15.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.44% per annum.
- ACAD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $16.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.34 (2.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 18, 2023
End date: December 5, 2024
a = 4.7460
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1377
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1377) – 1
= 73.45%
May 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7460 + -0.0012 × 1,140 + 2 × 0.1377)
= Exp(3.6432)
= $38.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7460 + -0.0012 × 1,140 – 2 × 0.1377)
= Exp(3.0925)
= $22.03
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7460 + -0.0012 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.1377)
= Exp(2.9578)
= $19.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7460 + -0.0012 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.1377)
= Exp(2.4071)
= $11.10
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.68% per annum.
- ACAD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.