Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC (JAZZ)
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc, a biopharmaceutical company, identifies, develops, and markets pharmaceutical products for various unmet medical needs in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.55% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $116.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.48% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JAZZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: November 6, 2024
a = 5.4539
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0523
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0523) – 1
= 23.26%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4539 + -0.0004 × 833 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(5.1997)
= $181.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4539 + -0.0004 × 833 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.9906)
= $147.02
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4539 + -0.0004 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.7777)
= $118.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4539 + -0.0004 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.5685)
= $96.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.55% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $116.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 12, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.2346
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.46%
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2346 + 0.0003 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.7446)
= $114.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2346 + 0.0003 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.6008)
= $99.57
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2346 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.8049)
= $122.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2346 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.6611)
= $105.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.48% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.