Merck & Company Inc (MRK)
Merck & Co. is an American multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey. It is named after the Merck family, which set up Merck Group in Germany in 1668.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.12% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $89.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.85% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.6353
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.82%
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6353 + -0.0012 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.9489)
= $141.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6353 + -0.0012 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.8020)
= $121.75
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6353 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.5459)
= $94.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6353 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.3990)
= $81.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.12% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $89.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 1.7179
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0336
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 75.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.36%
February 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0015 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.5237)
= $92.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0015 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.3895)
= $80.60
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.6072)
= $100.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7179 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.4730)
= $87.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.85% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.