Merck & Company Inc (MRK)
Merck & Co. is an American multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey. It is named after the Merck family, which set up Merck Group in Germany in 1668.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.16% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $97.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.73% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.1451
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0117
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0117) – 1
= 4.80%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1451 + -0.0031 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0117)
= Exp(4.7963)
= $121.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1451 + -0.0031 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0117)
= Exp(4.7495)
= $115.52
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1451 + -0.0031 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0117)
= Exp(4.5980)
= $99.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1451 + -0.0031 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0117)
= Exp(4.5512)
= $94.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.16% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $97.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 11.2539
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0098
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0098) – 1
= 4.01%
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2539 + -0.0037 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(4.7212)
= $112.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2539 + -0.0037 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(4.6819)
= $107.97
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2539 + -0.0037 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(4.5857)
= $98.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2539 + -0.0037 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(4.5464)
= $94.29
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.73% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.