McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation is an American fast food company, founded in 1940 as a restaurant operated by Richard and Maurice McDonald, in San Bernardino, California, United States. They rechristened their business as a hamburger stand, and later turned the company into a franchise, with the Golden Arches logo being introduced in 1953 at a location in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.05% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $291.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.27% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (0.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 16, 2025
End date: June 27, 2025
a = 10.5023
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0114
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0114) – 1
= 4.68%
May 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5023 + -0.0027 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0114)
= Exp(5.7970)
= $329.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5023 + -0.0027 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0114)
= Exp(5.7512)
= $314.57
June 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5023 + -0.0027 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0114)
= Exp(5.6854)
= $294.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5023 + -0.0027 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0114)
= Exp(5.6397)
= $281.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.05% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $291.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2025
End date: June 27, 2025
a = 12.2426
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0097
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -73.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0097) – 1
= 3.96%
June 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2426 + -0.0036 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(5.7626)
= $318.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2426 + -0.0036 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(5.7237)
= $306.04
June 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2426 + -0.0036 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(5.6722)
= $290.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2426 + -0.0036 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(5.6333)
= $279.60
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.27% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (0.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.