Stock Price Trends

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)

McDonald's Corporation is an American fast food company, founded in 1940 as a restaurant operated by Richard and Maurice McDonald, in San Bernardino, California, United States. They rechristened their business as a hamburger stand, and later turned the company into a franchise, with the Golden Arches logo being introduced in 1953 at a location in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.78% per annum.
  • MCD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $313.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.27% per annum.
  • MCD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 22, 2021
End date: February 7, 2025

a = 5.3161

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0516

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.95%

July 22, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3161 + 0.0002 × 476 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.5171)
= $248.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3161 + 0.0002 × 476 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.3106)
= $202.46

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3161 + 0.0002 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.7832)
= $324.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3161 + 0.0002 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.5766)
= $264.17

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.78% per annum.
  • MCD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $313.63 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 20, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 4.5434

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0429

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0429) – 1
= 18.71%

May 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,509 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5434 + 0.0007 × 1,509 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(5.6263)
= $277.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,509 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5434 + 0.0007 × 1,509 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(5.4547)
= $233.86

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5434 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(5.8351)
= $342.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5434 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(5.6635)
= $288.17

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.27% per annum.
  • MCD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.