McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation is an American fast food company, founded in 1940 as a restaurant operated by Richard and Maurice McDonald, in San Bernardino, California, United States. They rechristened their business as a hamburger stand, and later turned the company into a franchise, with the Golden Arches logo being introduced in 1953 at a location in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.25% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $307.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.30% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 6, 2021
End date: February 7, 2025
a = 5.2998
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0505
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0505) – 1
= 22.39%
April 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2998 + 0.0002 × 372 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.4816)
= $240.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2998 + 0.0002 × 372 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.2796)
= $196.29
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2998 + 0.0002 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.7862)
= $325.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2998 + 0.0002 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.5842)
= $266.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.25% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $307.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 20, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 4.5406
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0431
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.81%
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5406 + 0.0007 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.6266)
= $277.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5406 + 0.0007 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.4543)
= $233.76
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5406 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.8329)
= $341.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5406 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.6606)
= $287.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.30% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.