Stock Price Trends

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY)

Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. owns and operates adult and family entertainment venues and restaurants in North America. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.70% per annum.
  • PLAY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $34.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.42 (23.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 142.21% per annum.
  • PLAY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.85 (2.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: September 26, 2024

a = 10.0549

b = -0.0038

s = 0.0732

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0732) – 1
= 34.01%

February 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0549 + -0.0038 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(4.4030)
= $81.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0549 + -0.0038 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(4.1102)
= $60.96

September 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0549 + -0.0038 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(3.5332)
= $34.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0549 + -0.0038 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(3.2405)
= $25.55

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.70% per annum.
  • PLAY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $34.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.42 (23.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024

a = -0.7665

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0504

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 142.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.33%

August 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7665 + 0.0024 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.5005)
= $33.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7665 + 0.0024 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.2989)
= $27.08

November 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7665 + 0.0024 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.7550)
= $42.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7665 + 0.0024 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.5534)
= $34.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 142.21% per annum.
  • PLAY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.85 (2.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.