Stock Price Trends

BJs Restaurants Inc (BJRI)

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. owns and operates casual restaurants in the United States. The company is headquartered in Huntington Beach, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.37% per annum.
  • BJRI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $34.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 128.53% per annum.
  • BJRI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BJRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 7, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.9772

b = 0.0003

s = 0.1069

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1069) – 1
= 53.35%

March 7, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9772 + 0.0003 × 837 + 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(3.4584)
= $31.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9772 + 0.0003 × 837 – 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(3.0308)
= $20.71

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9772 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(3.7742)
= $43.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9772 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(3.3467)
= $28.41

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.37% per annum.
  • BJRI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $34.13 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -0.5302

b = 0.0023

s = 0.0400

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 128.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.33%

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5302 + 0.0023 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.4355)
= $31.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5302 + 0.0023 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.2756)
= $26.46

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5302 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.6846)
= $39.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5302 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.5247)
= $33.94

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 128.53% per annum.
  • BJRI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.