Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., operates casual restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 113.44% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $193.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.31 (8.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXRH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 1.6735
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0557
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 113.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0557) – 1
= 24.93%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y937)
= Exp(a + b × X937 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6735 + 0.0021 × 1,363 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.6161)
= $101.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y937)
= Exp(a + b × X937 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6735 + 0.0021 × 1,363 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.3935)
= $80.92
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6735 + 0.0021 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(5.3286)
= $206.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6735 + 0.0021 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(5.1060)
= $165.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 113.44% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $193.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.31 (8.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2024
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 3.8681
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.03%
February 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8681 + 0.0007 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.0705)
= $159.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8681 + 0.0007 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.9392)
= $139.66
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8681 + 0.0007 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.2578)
= $192.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8681 + 0.0007 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.1265)
= $168.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.