Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., operates casual restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.51% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $166.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.81 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.68% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXRH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2022
End date: February 6, 2025
a = 3.5378
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0882
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0882) – 1
= 42.31%
May 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y526)
= Exp(a + b × X526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5378 + 0.0010 × 762 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.4537)
= $85.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y526)
= Exp(a + b × X526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5378 + 0.0010 × 762 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.1009)
= $60.39
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5378 + 0.0010 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(5.4339)
= $229.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5378 + 0.0010 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(5.0811)
= $160.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.51% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $166.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.81 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.8246
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0277
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.71%
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8246 + -0.0009 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.3316)
= $206.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8246 + -0.0009 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.2209)
= $185.10
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8246 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.1900)
= $179.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8246 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.0792)
= $160.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.68% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.