Stock Price Trends

Shake Shack Inc (SHAK)

Shake Shack Inc. owns, operates and licenses Shake Shack restaurants (Shacks) in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.86% per annum.
  • SHAK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $119.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.16% per annum.
  • SHAK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SHAK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 10, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.7533

b = 0.0011

s = 0.1215

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1215) – 1
= 62.60%

May 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7533 + 0.0011 × 901 + 2 × 0.1215)
= Exp(3.9618)
= $52.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7533 + 0.0011 × 901 – 2 × 0.1215)
= Exp(3.4757)
= $32.32

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7533 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1215)
= Exp(4.9529)
= $141.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7533 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1215)
= Exp(4.4668)
= $87.08

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.86% per annum.
  • SHAK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $119.27 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 24, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -0.0010

b = 0.0026

s = 0.0588

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 162.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0588) – 1
= 26.53%

June 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0010 + 0.0026 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.5448)
= $94.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0010 + 0.0026 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.3095)
= $74.40

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0010 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.9382)
= $139.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0010 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.7029)
= $110.27

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.16% per annum.
  • SHAK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.