Papa John's International Inc (PZZA)
Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and take-out restaurants under the Papa John's trademark in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.76% per annum.
- PZZA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $41.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.37% per annum.
- PZZA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PZZA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 22, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.1066
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1147
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1147) – 1
= 58.19%
July 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1066 + -0.0007 × 477 + 2 × 0.1147)
= Exp(4.9815)
= $145.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1066 + -0.0007 × 477 – 2 × 0.1147)
= Exp(4.5228)
= $92.10
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1066 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1147)
= Exp(3.9798)
= $53.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1066 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1147)
= Exp(3.5212)
= $33.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.76% per annum.
- PZZA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $41.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.5627
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1128
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1128) – 1
= 57.03%
July 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5627 + -0.0010 × 1,195 + 2 × 0.1128)
= Exp(4.5560)
= $95.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5627 + -0.0010 × 1,195 – 2 × 0.1128)
= Exp(4.1048)
= $60.63
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5627 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1128)
= Exp(3.9063)
= $49.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5627 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1128)
= Exp(3.4551)
= $31.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.37% per annum.
- PZZA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.