Stock Price Trends

The Wendy’s Co (WEN)

The Wendy's Company, is a quick service restaurant business. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.60% per annum.
  • WEN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $14.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.32% per annum.
  • WEN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (12.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 25, 2022
End date: September 12, 2024

a = 3.3843

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0367

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.79%

November 25, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y669)
= Exp(a + b × X669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3843 + -0.0004 × 968 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.1003)
= $22.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y669)
= Exp(a + b × X669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3843 + -0.0004 × 968 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(2.9537)
= $19.18

September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3843 + -0.0004 × 1,625 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(2.8578)
= $17.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3843 + -0.0004 × 1,625 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(2.7112)
= $15.05

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.60% per annum.
  • WEN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $14.63 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: February 14, 2025

a = 7.6589

b = -0.0028

s = 0.0304

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0304) – 1
= 12.92%

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6589 + -0.0028 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(3.0497)
= $21.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6589 + -0.0028 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(2.9282)
= $18.69

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6589 + -0.0028 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(2.6940)
= $14.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6589 + -0.0028 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(2.5725)
= $13.10

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.32% per annum.
  • WEN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (12.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.