Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)
Yum! Brands, Inc. is an American fast food corporation listed on the Fortune 1000. Yum! operates the brands KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, The Habit Burger Grill, and WingStreet worldwide, except in China, where the brands are operated by a separate company, Yum China.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.36% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $157.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.01 (3.97%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 480.54% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.85 (7.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of YUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 6, 2021
End date: February 5, 2025
a = 4.6520
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0532
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0532) – 1
= 23.70%
April 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6520 + 0.0001 × 370 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(4.8113)
= $122.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6520 + 0.0001 × 370 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(4.5986)
= $99.35
February 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6520 + 0.0001 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.0119)
= $150.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6520 + 0.0001 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(4.7992)
= $121.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.36% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $157.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.01 (3.97%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2025
End date: March 11, 2025
a = -3.6081
b = 0.0048
s = 0.0274
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 480.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0274) – 1
= 11.56%
January 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6081 + 0.0048 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(4.8406)
= $126.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6081 + 0.0048 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(4.7312)
= $113.43
March 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6081 + 0.0048 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(5.1442)
= $171.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6081 + 0.0048 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(5.0348)
= $153.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 480.54% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.85 (7.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.