Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)
Yum! Brands, Inc. is an American fast food corporation listed on the Fortune 1000. Yum! operates the brands KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, The Habit Burger Grill, and WingStreet worldwide, except in China, where the brands are operated by a separate company, Yum China.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.56% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $132.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.53% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of YUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 6, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.6378
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0537
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0537) – 1
= 23.94%
April 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6378 + 0.0001 × 502 + 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(4.8195)
= $123.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6378 + 0.0001 × 502 – 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(4.6049)
= $99.97
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6378 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(5.0158)
= $150.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6378 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(4.8011)
= $121.65
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.56% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $132.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.5264
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0478
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.06%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5264 + 0.0002 × 834 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(4.8089)
= $122.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5264 + 0.0002 × 834 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(4.6178)
= $101.27
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5264 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.0314)
= $153.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5264 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(4.8403)
= $126.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.53% per annum.
- YUM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.