Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.67% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $56.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.66 (20.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.60% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 13, 2023
End date: October 15, 2024
a = 6.5069
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1070
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1070) – 1
= 53.43%
January 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5069 + -0.0016 × 1,137 + 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(4.9332)
= $138.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5069 + -0.0016 × 1,137 – 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(4.5051)
= $90.47
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5069 + -0.0016 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(3.9253)
= $50.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5069 + -0.0016 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(3.4972)
= $33.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.67% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $56.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.66 (20.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = -0.8878
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 162.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 24.98%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8878 + 0.0026 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(3.7388)
= $42.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8878 + 0.0026 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(3.5158)
= $33.64
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8878 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.0536)
= $57.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8878 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(3.8306)
= $46.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.60% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.