Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $38.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.87% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.39 (19.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2022
End date: November 21, 2024
a = 5.9785
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1203
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1203) – 1
= 61.80%
October 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 937 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9785 + -0.0013 × 937 + 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(4.9737)
= $144.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 937 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9785 + -0.0013 × 937 – 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(4.4925)
= $89.35
November 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9785 + -0.0013 × 1,695 + 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(3.9662)
= $52.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9785 + -0.0013 × 1,695 – 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(3.4851)
= $32.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $38.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 17, 2024
End date: February 13, 2025
a = 1.7592
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0991
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0991) – 1
= 48.66%
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0013 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(3.8688)
= $47.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0013 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(3.4723)
= $32.21
February 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0013 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(4.2137)
= $67.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0013 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(3.8173)
= $45.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.87% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.39 (19.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.