Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.68% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $58.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.16% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: July 17, 2024
a = 2.2428
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0934
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0934) – 1
= 45.31%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2428 + 0.0011 × 896 + 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(3.4033)
= $30.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2428 + 0.0011 × 896 – 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(3.0296)
= $20.69
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2428 + 0.0011 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(4.2771)
= $72.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2428 + 0.0011 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(3.9034)
= $49.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.68% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $58.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.6222
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0614
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0614) – 1
= 27.85%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6222 + -0.0003 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.2323)
= $68.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6222 + -0.0003 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.9866)
= $53.87
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6222 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.1528)
= $63.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6222 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.9071)
= $49.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.16% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.