Stock Price Trends

Bloomin Brands Inc (BLMN)

Bloomin 'Brands, Inc. owns and operates casual, upscale casual and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.67% per annum.
  • BLMN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $12.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.53% per annum.
  • BLMN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 7.0729

b = -0.0024

s = 0.0752

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0752) – 1
= 35.09%

January 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0729 + -0.0024 × 1,530 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(3.5197)
= $33.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0729 + -0.0024 × 1,530 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(3.2190)
= $25.00

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0729 + -0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.8032)
= $16.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0729 + -0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.5025)
= $12.21

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.67% per annum.
  • BLMN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $12.59 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 28, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 29.3817

b = -0.0147

s = 0.0439

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0147) – 1
= -99.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.19%

October 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(29.3817 + -0.0147 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.9480)
= $19.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(29.3817 + -0.0147 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.7725)
= $16.00

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(29.3817 + -0.0147 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.6097)
= $13.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(29.3817 + -0.0147 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.4341)
= $11.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.53% per annum.
  • BLMN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.