The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. The company is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.28% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $48.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.25% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 1.9761
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0602
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0602) – 1
= 27.25%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9761 + 0.0011 × 1,252 + 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(3.4477)
= $31.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9761 + 0.0011 × 1,252 – 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(3.2068)
= $24.70
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9761 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(4.0661)
= $58.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9761 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(3.8251)
= $45.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.28% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $48.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 29, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 8.4746
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.55%
January 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4746 + -0.0025 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.0968)
= $60.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4746 + -0.0025 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(3.9351)
= $51.17
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4746 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(3.9426)
= $51.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4746 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(3.7809)
= $43.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.25% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.