The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. The company is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.92% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $46.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 295.88% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.1143
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0503
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0503) – 1
= 22.29%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,384 + 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.4613)
= $31.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,384 – 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.2601)
= $26.05
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.8594)
= $47.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.6581)
= $38.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.92% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $46.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -3.0124
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0316
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 295.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.46%
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0124 + 0.0038 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.6515)
= $38.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0124 + 0.0038 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.5252)
= $33.96
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0124 + 0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.9342)
= $51.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0124 + 0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.8079)
= $45.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 295.88% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.