Arcadium Lithium plc (ALTM)
Altus Midstream Company owns gas collection, processing and transmission assets in the Permian Basin of West Texas. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4,474.09% per annum.
- ALTM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $5.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.07% per annum.
- ALTM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALTM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 12, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -1.5610
b = 0.0105
s = 0.1906
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0105) – 1
= 4,474.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1906) – 1
= 114.35%
August 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y152)
= Exp(a + b × X152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5610 + 0.0105 × 222 + 2 × 0.1906)
= Exp(1.1454)
= $3.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y152)
= Exp(a + b × X152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5610 + 0.0105 × 222 – 2 × 0.1906)
= Exp(0.3830)
= $1.47
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5610 + 0.0105 × 322 + 2 × 0.1906)
= Exp(2.1928)
= $8.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5610 + 0.0105 × 322 – 2 × 0.1906)
= Exp(1.4304)
= $4.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4,474.09% per annum.
- ALTM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $5.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 9, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.1836
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0087
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0087) – 1
= 3.55%
October 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1836 + -0.0016 × 280 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(1.7415)
= $5.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1836 + -0.0016 × 280 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(1.7066)
= $5.51
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1836 + -0.0016 × 322 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(1.6725)
= $5.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1836 + -0.0016 × 322 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(1.6376)
= $5.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.07% per annum.
- ALTM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.