Vistra Energy Corp (VST)
Vistra Corp. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 217.05% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $154.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,102.51% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 24, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -0.9297
b = 0.0032
s = 0.1402
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 217.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1402) – 1
= 75.21%
March 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9297 + 0.0032 × 1,219 + 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(3.2044)
= $24.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9297 + 0.0032 × 1,219 – 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(2.6436)
= $14.06
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9297 + 0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(5.1234)
= $167.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9297 + 0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(4.5626)
= $95.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 217.05% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $154.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -7.4170
b = 0.0068
s = 0.0938
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0068) – 1
= 1,102.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0938) – 1
= 45.51%
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4170 + 0.0068 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(4.4015)
= $81.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4170 + 0.0068 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(4.0264)
= $56.06
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4170 + 0.0068 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(5.2123)
= $183.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4170 + 0.0068 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(4.8372)
= $126.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,102.51% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.