MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
MGE Energy, Inc., is a utility holding company primarily in Wisconsin. The company is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.06% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $103.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.13% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.2854
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0520
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.13%
January 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2854 + 0.0013 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.2858)
= $72.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2854 + 0.0013 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.0777)
= $59.01
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2854 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.6796)
= $107.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2854 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.4716)
= $87.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.06% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $103.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.4670
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4670 + 0.0017 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.3907)
= $80.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4670 + 0.0017 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.2432)
= $69.63
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4670 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.6757)
= $107.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4670 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.5282)
= $92.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.13% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.