UNITIL Corporation (UTL)
Unitil Corporation, a utility holding company, is engaged in the distribution of electricity and natural gas. The company is headquartered in Hampton, New Hampshire.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.12% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.60% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UTL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.7780
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0425) – 1
= 18.53%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7780 + 0.0007 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(3.8628)
= $47.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7780 + 0.0007 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(3.6928)
= $40.16
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7780 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.1802)
= $65.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7780 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.0102)
= $55.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.12% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.2007
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0219
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0219) – 1
= 9.15%
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2007 + -0.0001 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(4.1212)
= $61.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2007 + -0.0001 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(4.0336)
= $56.47
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2007 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(4.1126)
= $61.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2007 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(4.0250)
= $55.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.60% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.