Public Service Enterprise Group Inc (PEG)
The Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) is a publicly traded diversified energy company headquartered in Newark, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.79% per annum.
- PEG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $90.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.88% per annum.
- PEG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.01 (0.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2024
End date: October 31, 2024
a = 1.5550
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.90%
January 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5550 + 0.0016 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.0826)
= $59.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5550 + 0.0016 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(3.9791)
= $53.47
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5550 + 0.0016 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.5640)
= $95.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5550 + 0.0016 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.4605)
= $86.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.79% per annum.
- PEG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $90.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2024
End date: November 15, 2024
a = 5.8240
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0230
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0230) – 1
= 9.62%
September 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8240 + -0.0007 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.5484)
= $94.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8240 + -0.0007 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.4566)
= $86.20
November 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8240 + -0.0007 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.5088)
= $90.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8240 + -0.0007 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.4170)
= $82.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.88% per annum.
- PEG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.01 (0.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.