Eversource Energy (ES)
Eversource Energy is a publicly traded, Fortune 500 energy company headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut, and Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.74% per annum.
- ES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $61.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.35% per annum.
- ES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2023
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 3.1704
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0449
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.66%
September 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1704 + 0.0006 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.0500)
= $57.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1704 + 0.0006 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(3.8705)
= $47.97
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1704 + 0.0006 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.2762)
= $71.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1704 + 0.0006 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.0967)
= $60.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.74% per annum.
- ES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $61.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.3095
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0211
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0211) – 1
= 8.79%
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3095 + -0.0012 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.2676)
= $71.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3095 + -0.0012 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.1833)
= $65.58
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3095 + -0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.1696)
= $64.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3095 + -0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.0853)
= $59.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.35% per annum.
- ES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.