Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)
Duke Energy Corporation is an American electric power and natural gas holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.27% per annum.
- DUK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $113.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.39% per annum.
- DUK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DUK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.2479
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0331
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.16%
September 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2479 + 0.0008 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.4778)
= $88.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2479 + 0.0008 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.3454)
= $77.12
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2479 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.8254)
= $124.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2479 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.6930)
= $109.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.27% per annum.
- DUK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $113.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.3869
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0212
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0212) – 1
= 8.87%
September 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3869 + -0.0004 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.7960)
= $121.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3869 + -0.0004 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.7110)
= $111.16
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3869 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.7677)
= $117.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3869 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.6827)
= $108.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.39% per annum.
- DUK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.