Stock Price Trends

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

Duke Energy Corporation is an American electric power and natural gas holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.69% per annum.
  • DUK price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $124.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.99% per annum.
  • DUK price at the close of April 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DUK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 3.7175

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0416

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0416) – 1
= 18.10%

May 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7175 + 0.0006 × 1,143 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.4664)
= $87.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7175 + 0.0006 × 1,143 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.3000)
= $73.70

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7175 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.8624)
= $129.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7175 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.6961)
= $109.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.69% per annum.
  • DUK price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $124.05 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 30, 2024
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 2.0076

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0143

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.99%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0143) – 1
= 5.90%

December 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0076 + 0.0015 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(4.6867)
= $108.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0076 + 0.0015 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(4.6294)
= $102.45

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0076 + 0.0015 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(4.8308)
= $125.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0076 + 0.0015 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(4.7735)
= $118.33

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.99% per annum.
  • DUK price at the close of April 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.