Stock Price Trends

PPL Corporation (PPL)

PPL Corporation is an energy company headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania, United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.55% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $34.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.36% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 25, 2023
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 1.9515

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0334

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.29%

September 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9515 + 0.0009 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.2062)
= $24.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9515 + 0.0009 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.0726)
= $21.60

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9515 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.5765)
= $35.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9515 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.4430)
= $31.28

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.55% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $34.44 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 1.0961

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0249

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.47%

June 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0961 + 0.0013 × 1,648 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(3.3617)
= $28.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0961 + 0.0013 × 1,648 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(3.2621)
= $26.11

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0961 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(3.6010)
= $36.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0961 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(3.5015)
= $33.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.36% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.