Southern Company (SO)
Southern Company is an American gas and electric utility holding company based in the southern United States. It is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, with executive offices also located in Birmingham, Alabama.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.78% per annum.
- SO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $87.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.01 (5.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.11% per annum.
- SO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 2.1108
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0244
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 63.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.24%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0014 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.1965)
= $66.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0014 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.0991)
= $60.28
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0014 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.5804)
= $97.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0014 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.4830)
= $88.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.78% per annum.
- SO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $87.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.01 (5.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = 3.9260
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0198
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.23%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9260 + 0.0003 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.4990)
= $89.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9260 + 0.0003 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.4199)
= $83.09
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9260 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.5375)
= $93.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9260 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.4584)
= $86.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.11% per annum.
- SO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.