Exelon Corporation (EXC)
Exelon Corporation is an American Fortune 100 energy company headquartered in Chicago, Illinois and incorporated in Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.97% per annum.
- EXC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $38.73 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.54 (1.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.72% per annum.
- EXC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2022
End date: August 30, 2024
a = 3.8420
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0544
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0544) – 1
= 24.31%
February 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8420 + -0.0002 × 804 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.8151)
= $45.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8420 + -0.0002 × 804 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.5975)
= $36.51
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8420 + -0.0002 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.6564)
= $38.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8420 + -0.0002 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.4388)
= $31.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.97% per annum.
- EXC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $38.73 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.54 (1.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.8011
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.97%
December 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8011 + 0.0005 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.5691)
= $35.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8011 + 0.0005 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.4296)
= $30.87
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8011 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.7295)
= $41.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8011 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.5900)
= $36.23
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.72% per annum.
- EXC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.