Stock Price Trends

Site Centers Corp (SITC)

SITE Centers owns and manages outdoor shopping centers that provide a highly engaging shopping experience and product mix for retail partners and consumers.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.73% per annum.
  • SITC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $16.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.62 (53.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.65% per annum.
  • SITC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.85 (21.46%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SITC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023

a = 2.4270

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0852

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0852) – 1
= 40.63%

February 19, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4270 + -0.0001 × 457 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(2.5368)
= $12.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4270 + -0.0001 × 457 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(2.1958)
= $8.99

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4270 + -0.0001 × 1,483 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(2.4005)
= $11.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4270 + -0.0001 × 1,483 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(2.0595)
= $7.84

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.73% per annum.
  • SITC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $16.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.62 (53.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: September 30, 2024

a = 1.7415

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0597

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0597) – 1
= 26.97%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7415 + 0.0004 × 1,028 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(2.2703)
= $9.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7415 + 0.0004 × 1,028 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(2.0315)
= $7.63

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7415 + 0.0004 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(2.5682)
= $13.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7415 + 0.0004 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(2.3294)
= $10.27

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.65% per annum.
  • SITC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.85 (21.46%).