Stock Price Trends

Brixmor Property (BRX)

Brixmor (NYSE: BRX) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a high-quality national portfolio of outdoor shopping centers.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.98% per annum.
  • BRX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $26.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.68 (6.75%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.02% per annum.
  • BRX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BRX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 22, 2021
End date: July 11, 2024

a = 2.9288

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0691

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0691) – 1
= 31.84%

February 22, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9288 + 0.0001 × 327 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.0932)
= $22.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9288 + 0.0001 × 327 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(2.8168)
= $16.72

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9288 + 0.0001 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.1925)
= $24.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9288 + 0.0001 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(2.9161)
= $18.47

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.98% per annum.
  • BRX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $26.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.68 (6.75%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: March 10, 2025

a = 2.2653

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0580

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0580) – 1
= 26.13%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2653 + 0.0006 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(3.0143)
= $20.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2653 + 0.0006 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(2.7822)
= $16.15

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2653 + 0.0006 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(3.4455)
= $31.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2653 + 0.0006 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(3.2133)
= $24.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.02% per annum.
  • BRX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.