National Retail Properties Inc (NNN)
National Retail Properties invests primarily in high-quality retail properties generally subject to long-term net leases.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.77% per annum.
- NNN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $43.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.68 (1.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.35% per annum.
- NNN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NNN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 2.5307
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0430
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0430) – 1
= 18.76%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5307 + 0.0007 × 1,364 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.6191)
= $37.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5307 + 0.0007 × 1,364 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.4472)
= $31.41
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5307 + 0.0007 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.9439)
= $51.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5307 + 0.0007 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.7720)
= $43.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.77% per annum.
- NNN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $43.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.68 (1.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.2635
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0295
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0295) – 1
= 12.51%
September 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2635 + -0.0019 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.9562)
= $52.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2635 + -0.0019 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.8383)
= $46.45
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2635 + -0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.8200)
= $45.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2635 + -0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.7021)
= $40.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.35% per annum.
- NNN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.