Getty Realty Corporation (GTY)
Getty Realty Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.52% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $31.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.23 (3.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.47% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 1.9634
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.84%
January 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.2511)
= $25.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.0954)
= $22.10
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.5435)
= $34.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.3878)
= $29.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.52% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $31.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.23 (3.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 3.5355
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0206
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.58%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.4667)
= $32.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.3844)
= $29.50
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.4516)
= $31.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.3693)
= $29.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.47% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.