Stock Price Trends

Getty Realty Corporation (GTY)

Getty Realty Corp.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.52% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $31.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.23 (3.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.47% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: December 17, 2024

a = 1.9634

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0389

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.84%

January 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.2511)
= $25.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.0954)
= $22.10

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.5435)
= $34.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9634 + 0.0009 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.3878)
= $29.60

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.52% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $31.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.23 (3.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 3.5355

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0206

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.58%

August 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.4667)
= $32.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.3844)
= $29.50

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.4516)
= $31.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5355 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.3693)
= $29.06

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.47% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.