Stock Price Trends

Curbline Properties Corp. (CURB)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.75% per annum.
  • CURB price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $23.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 187.13% per annum.
  • CURB price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CURB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025

a = 3.3256

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0219

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0219) – 1
= 9.17%

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y81)
= Exp(a + b × X81 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3256 + -0.0009 × 120 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(3.2580)
= $26.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y81)
= Exp(a + b × X81 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3256 + -0.0009 × 120 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(3.1703)
= $23.81

April 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y144)
= Exp(a + b × X144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3256 + -0.0009 × 211 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(3.1735)
= $23.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y144)
= Exp(a + b × X144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3256 + -0.0009 × 211 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(3.0858)
= $21.88

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.75% per annum.
  • CURB price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $23.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 7, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025

a = 2.5401

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0147

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 187.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0147) – 1
= 6.06%

April 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y131)
= Exp(a + b × X131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5401 + 0.0029 × 193 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.1272)
= $22.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y131)
= Exp(a + b × X131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5401 + 0.0029 × 193 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.0684)
= $21.51

April 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y144)
= Exp(a + b × X144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5401 + 0.0029 × 211 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.1792)
= $24.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y144)
= Exp(a + b × X144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5401 + 0.0029 × 211 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.1204)
= $22.66

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 187.13% per annum.
  • CURB price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.