Stock Price Trends

Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM)

Kimco Realty Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in shopping centers.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.06% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $21.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.70 (3.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.61% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KIM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 6, 2021
End date: July 11, 2024

a = 2.9760

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0751

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0751) – 1
= 35.06%

April 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + -0.0001 × 370 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.1052)
= $22.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + -0.0001 × 370 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.8047)
= $16.52

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + -0.0001 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.0373)
= $20.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + -0.0001 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.7368)
= $15.44

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.06% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $21.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.70 (3.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: March 10, 2025

a = 2.2534

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0725

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.64%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2534 + 0.0005 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(2.9247)
= $18.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2534 + 0.0005 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(2.6348)
= $13.94

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2534 + 0.0005 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(3.2833)
= $26.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2534 + 0.0005 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(2.9934)
= $19.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.61% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.