Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.40% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $37.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.63 (4.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.75% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.70 (1.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 2.3730
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0303
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0303) – 1
= 12.87%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y688)
= Exp(a + b × X688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,000 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3730 + 0.0010 × 1,000 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(3.4779)
= $32.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y688)
= Exp(a + b × X688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,000 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3730 + 0.0010 × 1,000 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(3.3568)
= $28.70
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3730 + 0.0010 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(3.7400)
= $42.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3730 + 0.0010 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(3.6189)
= $37.30
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.40% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $37.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.63 (4.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 18, 2024
End date: January 23, 2025
a = 5.6713
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0145
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0145) – 1
= 5.96%
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6713 + -0.0016 × 1,222 + 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(3.7137)
= $41.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6713 + -0.0016 × 1,222 – 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(3.6558)
= $38.70
January 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6713 + -0.0016 × 1,288 + 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(3.6064)
= $36.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6713 + -0.0016 × 1,288 – 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(3.5485)
= $34.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.75% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.70 (1.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.