Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.37% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $35.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.06% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 4.4080
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0215
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.98%
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.6964)
= $40.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.6104)
= $36.98
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5896)
= $36.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5036)
= $33.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.37% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $35.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 3.8811
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0199
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1
= 8.28%
January 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.6282)
= $37.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.5486)
= $34.76
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.6031)
= $36.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.5235)
= $33.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.06% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.