Stock Price Trends

Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.37% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $35.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.06% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025

a = 4.4080

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0215

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.98%

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.6964)
= $40.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.6104)
= $36.98

April 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5896)
= $36.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4080 + -0.0006 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5036)
= $33.24

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.37% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $35.08 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025

a = 3.8811

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0199

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1
= 8.28%

January 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.6282)
= $37.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.5486)
= $34.76

April 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.6031)
= $36.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8811 + -0.0002 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.5235)
= $33.90

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.06% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.