Macerich Company (MAC)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.35% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $19.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 206.44% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.7598
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1022
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1022) – 1
= 50.47%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7598 + 0.0012 × 1,205 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(2.3970)
= $10.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7598 + 0.0012 × 1,205 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(1.9884)
= $7.30
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7598 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(3.1355)
= $23.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7598 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(2.7269)
= $15.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.35% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $19.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -2.6088
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0258
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 206.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0258) – 1
= 10.86%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6088 + 0.0031 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(2.7077)
= $14.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6088 + 0.0031 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(2.6046)
= $13.53
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6088 + 0.0031 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(3.0452)
= $21.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6088 + 0.0031 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(2.9421)
= $18.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 206.44% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.