Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
Federal Realty Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust that invests in shopping centers in the Northeastern United States, the Mid-Atlantic states, California, and South Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.18% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $113.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.79% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.5472
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5472 + 0.0007 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.5438)
= $94.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5472 + 0.0007 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.3964)
= $81.15
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5472 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.8238)
= $124.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5472 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.6763)
= $107.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.18% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $113.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.9698
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0125
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0125) – 1
= 5.11%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9698 + -0.0001 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.7613)
= $116.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9698 + -0.0001 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.7115)
= $111.22
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9698 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.7492)
= $115.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9698 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.6994)
= $109.88
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.79% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.