Stock Price Trends

Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)

Kite Realty Group Trust is a vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust (REIT) that provides communities with convenient and beneficial shopping experiences.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.20% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $22.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.75% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KRG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 12, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024

a = 2.7827

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0638

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.09%

February 12, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7827 + 0.0002 × 317 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.9626)
= $19.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7827 + 0.0002 × 317 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.7072)
= $14.99

July 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7827 + 0.0002 × 1,563 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.1679)
= $23.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7827 + 0.0002 × 1,563 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.9126)
= $18.40

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.20% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $22.37 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: March 21, 2025

a = 6.2033

b = -0.0017

s = 0.0252

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.61%

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2033 + -0.0017 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.3571)
= $28.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2033 + -0.0017 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.2562)
= $25.95

March 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2033 + -0.0017 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.1206)
= $22.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2033 + -0.0017 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.0198)
= $20.49

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.75% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.