Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)
Kite Realty Group Trust is a vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust (REIT) that provides communities with convenient and beneficial shopping experiences.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.20% per annum.
- KRG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $22.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.75% per annum.
- KRG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.67 (3.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KRG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 2.7830
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.09%
February 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7830 + 0.0002 × 315 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.9626)
= $19.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7830 + 0.0002 × 315 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.7072)
= $14.99
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7830 + 0.0002 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.1679)
= $23.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7830 + 0.0002 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.9126)
= $18.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.20% per annum.
- KRG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $22.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: March 21, 2025
a = 6.1998
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.61%
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1998 + -0.0017 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.3571)
= $28.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1998 + -0.0017 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.2562)
= $25.95
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1998 + -0.0017 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.1206)
= $22.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1998 + -0.0017 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.0198)
= $20.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.75% per annum.
- KRG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.67 (3.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.