Stock Price Trends

Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)

Kite Realty Group Trust is a vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust (REIT) that provides communities with convenient and beneficial shopping experiences.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.14% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $21.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.27% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (1.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KRG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 17, 2021
End date: July 11, 2024

a = 2.7756

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0637

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0637) – 1
= 29.01%

February 17, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7756 + 0.0002 × 296 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(2.9513)
= $19.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7756 + 0.0002 × 296 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(2.6966)
= $14.83

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7756 + 0.0002 × 1,536 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(3.1536)
= $23.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7756 + 0.0002 × 1,536 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(2.8989)
= $18.15

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.14% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $21.88 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: April 21, 2025

a = 5.9340

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0288

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0288) – 1
= 12.21%

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9340 + -0.0016 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.3455)
= $28.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9340 + -0.0016 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.2303)
= $25.29

April 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9340 + -0.0016 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.0764)
= $21.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9340 + -0.0016 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(2.9612)
= $19.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.27% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (1.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.