Stock Price Trends

Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)

Kite Realty Group Trust is a vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust (REIT) that provides communities with convenient and beneficial shopping experiences.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.15% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $27.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.62 (10.67%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 67.11% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KRG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 17, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024

a = 2.7744

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0637

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0637) – 1
= 29.02%

February 17, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7744 + 0.0002 × 454 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(2.9760)
= $19.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7744 + 0.0002 × 454 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(2.7213)
= $15.20

July 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7744 + 0.0002 × 1,695 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(3.1790)
= $24.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7744 + 0.0002 × 1,695 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(2.9242)
= $18.62

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.15% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $27.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.62 (10.67%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 0.7494

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0291

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.35%

March 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7494 + 0.0014 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.0234)
= $20.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7494 + 0.0014 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(2.9070)
= $18.30

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7494 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.3765)
= $29.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7494 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.2601)
= $26.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 67.11% per annum.
  • KRG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.