Gibraltar Industries Inc (ROCK)
Gibraltar Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes construction products for the renewable energy, conservation, residential and infrastructure markets in North America and Asia. The company is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.68% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $68.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.73 (21.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.87% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROCK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 24, 2022
End date: April 16, 2024
a = 2.7432
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0788
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0788) – 1
= 37.06%
March 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 855 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0010 × 855 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.7821)
= $43.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 855 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0010 × 855 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.4669)
= $32.04
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0010 × 1,609 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(4.5593)
= $95.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0010 × 1,609 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(4.2441)
= $69.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.68% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $68.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.73 (21.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 5.3541
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0467
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0467) – 1
= 20.53%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3541 + -0.0006 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.4948)
= $89.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3541 + -0.0006 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.3081)
= $74.30
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3541 + -0.0006 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.2851)
= $72.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3541 + -0.0006 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.0984)
= $60.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.87% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.