Boise Cascad Llc (BCC)
Boise Cascade Company manufactures wood products and distributes building materials in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.54% per annum.
- BCC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $138.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.37 (12.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.50% per annum.
- BCC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: May 31, 2024
a = 2.0979
b = 0.0017
s = 0.1054
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1054) – 1
= 52.43%
August 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0979 + 0.0017 × 1,014 + 2 × 0.1054)
= Exp(4.0705)
= $58.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0979 + 0.0017 × 1,014 – 2 × 0.1054)
= Exp(3.6489)
= $38.43
May 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0979 + 0.0017 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.1054)
= Exp(5.1824)
= $178.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0979 + 0.0017 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.1054)
= Exp(4.7609)
= $116.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.54% per annum.
- BCC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $138.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.37 (12.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 19, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.5803
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0635
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0635) – 1
= 28.90%
December 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,026)
= Exp(a + b × X1,026 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5803 + 0.0002 × 1,490 + 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(4.9643)
= $143.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,026)
= Exp(a + b × X1,026 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5803 + 0.0002 × 1,490 – 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(4.7104)
= $111.10
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5803 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(5.0223)
= $151.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5803 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0635)
= Exp(4.7684)
= $117.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.50% per annum.
- BCC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.