Masco Corporation (MAS)
Masco Corporation is a manufacturer of products for the home improvement and new home construction markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.86% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $76.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.53% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.9457
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0681
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.31%
September 14, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9457 + 0.0008 × 1,029 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(3.9041)
= $49.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9457 + 0.0008 × 1,029 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(3.6317)
= $37.78
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9457 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.5409)
= $93.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9457 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.2685)
= $71.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.86% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $76.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 8.8755
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0124) – 1
= 5.10%
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8755 + -0.0025 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(4.4639)
= $86.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8755 + -0.0025 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(4.4141)
= $82.61
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8755 + -0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(4.3747)
= $79.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8755 + -0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(4.3249)
= $75.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.53% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.