Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Insteel Industries, Inc., manufactures and markets steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications. The company is headquartered in Mount Airy, North Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.94% per annum.
- IIIN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 277.24% per annum.
- IIIN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IIIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.6734
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.09%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6734 + -0.0007 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.7053)
= $40.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6734 + -0.0007 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.5222)
= $33.86
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6734 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.4611)
= $31.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6734 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.2780)
= $26.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.94% per annum.
- IIIN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 18, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -3.2341
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0275
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 277.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.63%
October 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2341 + 0.0036 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.3466)
= $28.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2341 + 0.0036 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.2366)
= $25.45
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2341 + 0.0036 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.4630)
= $31.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2341 + 0.0036 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.3530)
= $28.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 277.24% per annum.
- IIIN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.