Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)
Johnson Controls International plc is an Irish-domiciled multinational conglomerate headquartered in Cork, Ireland, that produces fire, HVAC, and security equipment for buildings.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.84% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $80.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 2.4553
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0440
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0440) – 1
= 19.24%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,273 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(3.9768)
= $53.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,273 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(3.8009)
= $44.74
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(4.5635)
= $95.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(4.3876)
= $80.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.84% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $80.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 4.4228
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0400
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.35%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.4863)
= $88.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.3263)
= $75.67
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.4849)
= $88.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.3249)
= $75.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.