Stock Price Trends

Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)

Johnson Controls International plc is an Irish-domiciled multinational conglomerate headquartered in Cork, Ireland, that produces fire, HVAC, and security equipment for buildings.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.84% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $80.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.36% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025

a = 2.4553

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0440

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0440) – 1
= 19.24%

September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,273 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(3.9768)
= $53.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,273 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(3.8009)
= $44.74

February 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(4.5635)
= $95.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4553 + 0.0011 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(4.3876)
= $80.44

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.84% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $80.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.4228

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0400

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.35%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.4863)
= $88.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.3263)
= $75.67

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.4849)
= $88.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4228 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.3249)
= $75.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.36% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.