Stock Price Trends

Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)

Johnson Controls International plc is an Irish-domiciled multinational conglomerate headquartered in Cork, Ireland, that produces fire, HVAC, and security equipment for buildings.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.37% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $80.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.96 (5.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.53% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025

a = 2.4981

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0446

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.51%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4981 + 0.0011 × 1,242 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.9753)
= $53.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4981 + 0.0011 × 1,242 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.7971)
= $44.57

February 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4981 + 0.0011 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.5631)
= $95.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4981 + 0.0011 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.3849)
= $80.23

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.37% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $80.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.96 (5.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 4.8735

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0439

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.19%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8735 + -0.0003 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.5076)
= $90.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8735 + -0.0003 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.3320)
= $76.10

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8735 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.4612)
= $86.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8735 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.2856)
= $72.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.53% per annum.
  • JCI price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.