Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)
Johnson Controls International plc is an Irish-domiciled multinational conglomerate headquartered in Cork, Ireland, that produces fire, HVAC, and security equipment for buildings.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.10% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $82.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.11% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 2.4224
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.12%
September 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4224 + 0.0011 × 1,301 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.9813)
= $53.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4224 + 0.0011 × 1,301 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.8063)
= $44.98
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4224 + 0.0011 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.5682)
= $96.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4224 + 0.0011 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.3932)
= $80.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.10% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $82.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 10, 2025
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 12.2376
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0182
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0182) – 1
= 7.55%
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2376 + -0.0043 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.5442)
= $94.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2376 + -0.0043 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.4715)
= $87.49
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2376 + -0.0043 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.4456)
= $85.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2376 + -0.0043 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.3728)
= $79.27
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.11% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.