Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)
Johnson Controls International plc is an Irish-domiciled multinational conglomerate headquartered in Cork, Ireland, that produces fire, HVAC, and security equipment for buildings.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.07% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $83.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.17% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.1938
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0415
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0415) – 1
= 18.05%
October 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1938 + 0.0012 × 1,412 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(3.9739)
= $53.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1938 + 0.0012 × 1,412 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(3.8080)
= $45.06
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1938 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.4715)
= $87.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1938 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.3056)
= $74.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.07% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $83.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.7242
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0273
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0273) – 1
= 11.53%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7242 + 0.0020 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.2503)
= $70.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7242 + 0.0020 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.1412)
= $62.88
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7242 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.4707)
= $87.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7242 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.3616)
= $78.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.17% per annum.
- JCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.