Quanex Building Products (NX)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
- NX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.16 (4.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.16% per annum.
- NX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: October 11, 2024
a = 5.6512
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0668
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0668) – 1
= 30.63%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6512 + -0.0013 × 1,542 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.7353)
= $41.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6512 + -0.0013 × 1,542 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.4681)
= $32.08
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6512 + -0.0013 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.4097)
= $30.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6512 + -0.0013 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.1425)
= $23.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
- NX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.16 (4.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.0228
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0356
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0356) – 1
= 15.31%
August 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0228 + 0.0013 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(3.3454)
= $28.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0228 + 0.0013 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(3.2029)
= $24.60
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0228 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(3.4814)
= $32.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0228 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(3.3389)
= $28.19
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.16% per annum.
- NX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.