Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipe and related water management products and drainage solutions for use in the underground construction and infrastructure market in the United States, Canada, Mexico and internationally. The company is headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.01% per annum.
- WMS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $109.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.54% per annum.
- WMS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 7.4229
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0561
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0561) – 1
= 25.15%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,494 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4229 + -0.0015 × 1,494 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(5.3048)
= $201.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,494 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4229 + -0.0015 × 1,494 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(5.0805)
= $160.85
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4229 + -0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(4.8107)
= $122.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4229 + -0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(4.5864)
= $98.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.01% per annum.
- WMS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $109.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 8.2806
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.78%
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2806 + -0.0020 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.1526)
= $172.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2806 + -0.0020 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.9392)
= $139.66
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2806 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.7656)
= $117.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2806 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.5523)
= $94.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.54% per annum.
- WMS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.