American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD)
American Woodmark Corporation manufactures and distributes kitchen, bathroom and home organization products for the remodeling and new home construction markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.65% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $82.16 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.61 (8.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.15% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 24, 2022
End date: November 26, 2024
a = 3.0433
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1084
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1084) – 1
= 54.28%
March 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y544)
= Exp(a + b × X544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0433 + 0.0009 × 786 + 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(3.9793)
= $53.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y544)
= Exp(a + b × X544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0433 + 0.0009 × 786 – 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(3.5457)
= $34.66
November 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0433 + 0.0009 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(4.8741)
= $130.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0433 + 0.0009 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(4.4405)
= $84.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.65% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $82.16 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.61 (8.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 4.8345
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.60%
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y974)
= Exp(a + b × X974 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8345 + -0.0002 × 1,410 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.6854)
= $108.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y974)
= Exp(a + b × X974 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8345 + -0.0002 × 1,410 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.4108)
= $82.33
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8345 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.6009)
= $99.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8345 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.3263)
= $75.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.15% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.