American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD)
American Woodmark Corporation manufactures and distributes kitchen, bathroom and home organization products for the remodeling and new home construction markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.05% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $58.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.01% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 10.0378
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0546
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0546) – 1
= 24.41%
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0378 + -0.0033 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.7528)
= $115.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0378 + -0.0033 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.5344)
= $93.17
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0378 + -0.0033 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.1219)
= $61.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0378 + -0.0033 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(3.9035)
= $49.57
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.05% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $58.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 7.1025
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0267
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.27%
February 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1025 + -0.0017 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.1721)
= $64.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1025 + -0.0017 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.0654)
= $58.29
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1025 + -0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.0759)
= $58.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1025 + -0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(3.9691)
= $52.94
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.01% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.